Analysts adjust higher metal price assumptions on Russia-Ukraine conflict

Moody’s Investors Service released a report on April 6 flagging spiking prices for commodities Russia is a crucial producer of. These include aluminum, zinc, nickel, copper, gold and metallurgical and thermal coal. Moody’s said the price moves reflected fears of supply disruptions and scarcity at a time of generally low inventories, especially for base metals.

In the wake of the heightened volatility, Moody’s noted that some base metals prices, including aluminum and nickel, approached record highs in the first quarter of 2022, while copper and zinc prices have remained elevated.

Supply-demand balances for these commodities were already tight, with supply volatile amid low stocks and supply-chain disruptions. As a result, prices were high at the start of 2022, before the military conflict.