Copper mines need $332bn new investment to ease shortfall
Copper mines need about $332-billion of new investment to avert a future supply shock, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates.
Without significant capital outlays, the copper market faces a projected supply shortfall of 20-million metric tons by 2050, and is at risk of a painful squeeze that will slow the shift toward electrification, according to a report released Tuesday.
The market is expected to slip into deficit by 2028 as demand rises and producers struggle to replace declining output, BNEF analysts said.
The shift away from fossil fuels and toward electrifying everything from cars to data centers has made copper by far the most supply-constrained metal covered in BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook report. Demand linked to electrification is projected to spike 89% to 23.3-million tons in 2050, accounting for more than half of total copper consumption.
“Electrified transport is the fastest-growing copper application,” the analysts wrote. “Electric cars, trucks and buses, whose adoption skyrockets over 2026-2050, require copper in motors, inverters, battery packs, high-voltage wiring and charging.”
The red metal will also continue to be in demand for construction, industrial production and consumer products, while data centers are just “a drop in the ocean for copper demand.”
Enough copper may exist underground, but new and expanded mines are not coming online fast enough to offset declining output from existing operations. Without additional investment, total supply could fall 14.5% to 25.7-million tons by 2050, from 30-million tons in 2026. Falling ore grades will raise production costs, while recycling won’t be enough to offset lower primary output.
Even if the required $332-billion is invested in new mines, the gap is likely to remain open until at least 2043 because a new copper mine takes an average of 17 years to develop.
Chile is expected to remain the largest primary producer, although its output is forecast to fall to 4.8-million tons in 2050, from 5.8-million tons in 2026, BNEF estimates. The nation’s share of mined supply would nevertheless rise to 28% from 24% as production declines more rapidly elsewhere.