Global coal demand forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94bn tonnes due to Middle East conflict, IEA says
Global coal demand is forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94-billion tonnes due to the Middle East conflict, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
Disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran war started have driven up prices and encouraged higher electricity generation from coal in countries that have gas-fired power fleets and spare coal capacity, the IEA added in an update on the coal sector.
There has been higher coal use in Europe, Japan, Korea, China and other markets than previously expected.
The IEA had expected global coal demand to decline slightly this year.
Next year, there is uncertainty about demand as it will depend on whether shipping traffic through Hormuz recovers. If it does, demand could decrease in 2027 but if the strait remains largely closed to LNG shipments, coal demand could increase further, the IEA said.
Global coal production is expected to decline this year but is set to remain above 9-billion tonnes for a third consecutive year.
Output in China, the world’s biggest producer, declined after safety inspections following a major mine accident in May which has resulted in a significant reduction of coal production.