Cochilco expects short-term lithium prices to remain high
Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco said on Thursday that it expects lithium prices to remain high in the short term due to low inventories at cathode plants, increased purchases to replenish inventories and supply uncertainties.
The lithium market closed December 2025 with a remarkable recovery, reaching $11,300 per metric ton, Cochilco said. Lithium prices hit four-year lows in 2025, bottoming out at about $7,500 per ton.
The battery energy storage system (BESS) sector will continue to gain market share, with projected growth of 50-55% in 2026, which would translate into an increase of approximately 190,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) compared to the previous year.
Growth in the BESS sector would allow the excess supply to be absorbed and a new price floor to be established.
“The lithium market has found solid support thanks to a combination of stimulus policies in China, lower supply of lithium from mines in that country and the consolidation of the BESS sector as a structural driver of demand independent of fluctuations in the vehicle market in major economies,” the report said.
The agency also highlighted that China’s Natural Resources Authority revoked 27 expired mining licenses in Jiangxi province in mid-December. “Although these were inactive projects, the move signals much stricter environmental oversight,” it noted.