Interview with Vishal Thiruvedula, Senior Analyist at Thomson Reuters

Metal Bulletin: At the upcoming 24th International Iron Ore Symposium you will be speaking about the factors that drive the commodity markets with regards to iron ore, steel and coking coal. What is the current outlook with regards to these commodities and are there reasons for industry players to be optimistic?
Vishal Thiruvedula: In spite of the current high level of Iron Ore inventories at Chinese ports, steel inventories have been dropping consistently as the steel makers are producing over 2.5 million tonnes of steel per day a record since mid 2014.The steel mills will look to optimise their output prior to any potential production restrictions in the winter. In the short term strong steel margins and majority of steel mills back to normal operation should be bullish for coking coal & iron ore. Recent declines in iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports are evidence of increased restocking demand from steel mills. Steel margins should be supported in the short term by construction activity and the closure of outdated plants.
MB: Since 2017 have you witnessed any surprises when it comes to seaborne iron ore trading? How to do you see the rest of 2018 panning out?
VT: Resilience of Iron ore imports to China in 2017. Imports grew 5% y-o-y for 2017. A robust increase in supply outside of the majors from countries such as Russia, Iran, Peru & India.
Iron ore seaborne volumes should still be supported by the construction activity in China and steel mills looking to maximise output prior to the production cuts in the winter.
MB: During your time with Thomson Reuters, what lessons have you learnt that you can share?
VT: In the last 18- 24 months the market has witnessed significant changes in production capacities across coal & steel sectors in China due to policy changes targeted towards cleaning up the environment and reducing overcapacity. The effect of these policy changes has resulted in increased volatility across both raw material prices and seaborne trade volumes. The adjustments in the Chinese economy over the next few years to reduce carbon emissions and pivot towards a service oriented economy are going to continue to have a pronounced impact on coal & iron ore prices.
MB: What are you looking forward to most about the upcoming 24th International Iron Ore Symposium?
VT: Attending the International Iron ore symposium for the second year in a row provides me the opportunity to build on the relationships forged last year. Looking forward to the interactions with a wide range of industry specialists involved in mining, steel mills and the analyst community.
You can hear more from Vishal Thiruvedula at this year`s 24th International Iron Ore Symposium on 25-26 June 2018.
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